Smartphone vendors under the law industry earnings: PC or to repeat mistakes
The beginning of July, the major smart phone manufacturers have released earnings:
Blackberry $ 84 million first-quarter loss, less than analysts expected, the stock plunged 17%;
HTC second quarter net profit of $ 41.63 million, less than analysts expected, the stock fell to a seven-year low;
Samsung's second-quarter operating profit of $ 8.3 billion, less than analysts expected, this year's stock is down 13%;
Nokia's second quarter revenue of $ 7.4 billion, down 19.6%, while loss of $ 150 million, all from the loss of equipment and services sector;
Although Apple has not yet released earnings, but the "Fortune" under 35 Wall Street experts collegiate, gives the "Apple revenue growth will be zero" conclusion.
Earnings and stock prices has been the market about corporate performance benchmark. Less than expected earnings, the stock fell usually means that companies in some areas there is a problem. For these multi-billion dollar smart phone manufacturers, in the where exactly is the problem? From these current problems, we are trying to find some of the smart phone industry, there are some rules.
Situation one: high-end market is nearing saturation
2013, Samsung, HTC, Huawei, Nokia released the latest series of flagship phone, the Google acquisition of Motorola is also brewing a XPhone phone, in accordance with the laws in previous years, Apple will release a new generation of iPhone. But many analysts worry that these high-end product sales, and gives the expected downturn in sales.
In Galaxy S4, for example, with the Galaxy S series of previous generations of mobile phones compared Galaxy S4 analysts expected sales decline markedly accelerated. The third quarter and fourth quarter sales are expected compared to the previous two quarters, fell almost 50%. In contrast, previous generations of Galaxy series of products, such as the Galaxy S2 and Galaxy S3 stamina rather full.
Why analysts sharp decline in sales of high-end mobile phone?
The reason is simple, Arete Research Partner analyst Brett Simpson said: "Investors are not optimistic about this year's smartphone market on the grounds that developed high-end mobile phone market has become saturated, the penetration rate close to the peak; market penetration is low in areas, consumers did not spend as consumers in developed countries as much money to buy smart phones. "
Published by market research firm NPD reports that in 2013 global smart phone shipments will surpass the first feature phones, smart phone shipments main engine of growth in emerging markets. The industry believes that every month millions of consumers to buy first smartphone day is nearing an end, and the need to re-purchase customers tend to wait for two years or longer before upgrading their smart phones, This means that the smart phone market growth is slowing, which makes manufacturers must compete for market share and expand.
The rapid growth of high-end smart models already come to an end, the development of low-end models right time, and this smart phone manufacturers to bring to the direct impact is a double revenues and profits decline.
Situation two: Innovation encounter bottleneck
"Wall Street Journal" recently published an article that the U.S. consumer smartphone replacement ratio declined because consumers believe that the major manufacturers introduced flagship phone lacks sufficient innovation, so there is no need to update to the latest models.
Senior media people Wangru Chen believes that as of now, the smart phone is still mainly dependent on hardware features integrated innovation-driven. We can see the future larger, faster processor, thinner body smart phones, but that is just the amount of change does not alter the basic form of mobile phones.
Why smart phone innovation into a bottleneck?
Communications specialists Zhigang of Artesyn Technologies, said the foundation of innovation lies in the accumulation of knowledge, and the accumulation of knowledge, requires a long period. Currently, smart phone battery, processor, screen, such as the use of the basic technology, most universities in the United States 20 years ago, the birth of the laboratory, and now smart phones almost "overdraft" 20 years ago, innovative bonus.
Chen Zhigang also believes that, to some extent, the global fundamental technological innovation, has always been on par with the U.S.. However, the U.S. science and technology last ten years of development point of view, did not achieve a breakthrough, the number of Nobel Prize, gold is far better than a few decades ago. Therefore, the smart phone industry innovation encountered a bottleneck.
Senior correspondents Liu Jie (Communications old willow) of Artesyn Technologies said that the current hardware configuration of smart phones far exceeds the demand for mobile applications. That does not give consumers a mobile application differentiated experience, which lead consumers to think psychologically innovative smartphones almost stagnant.
So, how should the future development of smart phones do?
Chen Gang believes that the current smart phones have gradually replaced the PC, covering almost all the functions of the PC. Therefore, the smart phone should build a future "big integration" concept: open the door, pay, travel card ...... all the things in life can be completed through a smart phone, which may also form through another revolutionary product to complete.
Law Summary:
From the above two status quo, we can see that the smart phone as an industry started to mature, have a first-mover advantage of the enterprise, increasingly unable to derive excess dividends. Mobile phone market just as the year of the PC market, as will as the profits of the end of the turn toward average profit or even losses, until the emergence of the next epoch-making innovation.
Situation three: smartphone industry, "Matthew Effect"
According to market research firm comScore latest data show that as of the end of May, iPhone in the U.S. smart phone market share has increased to 39.2%, Samsung smartphone market share increased to 23%, in addition to the two companies, other phones share have declined .
The nation's largest mobile phone chain Dixon pass this semi-annual report shows that in the domestic market, Samsung market share close to 40% share of Apple and Samsung has reached 55%, which is almost two-party monopoly of all the mobile phone industry profits.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley believes that in the smart phone market, Samsung and Apple have been very obvious advantages, other smart phone business as a competitor, is unable to continue to compete predicament. This phenomenon is known as the "Matthew Effect", ie the strong stronger and the weak weaker. Apple's smartphone market, Samsung formed duopoly situation, many other smart phone manufacturers despite the effort, but can only occupy a small share.
In this regard, Chen Zhigang that, while Huawei, Lenovo, HTC, Nokia and other brands have launched flagship and regain some market share, but in the long run, can not change Apple, Samsung two male hegemony pattern. From a functional point of view, smart phones become more serious homogenization, these brands have been hard to beat Apple, Samsung; From the price point of view, the two companies are active in the low-end market layout, Samsung has launched a low-cost version of the Galaxy series phone while legendary cheap version of iPhone is likely to be launched this year. So, even if Samsung, Apple's earnings data does not look good, but that does not prevent them to continue to sit tight in the smart phone industry overlord throne.
Liu Jie said, Samsung, Apple has now recognized the dangers of ignoring innovation, the two companies are in the research and development efforts, which for other mobile phone manufacturers, it is a bad signal, smart phone industry, "Matthew Effect" will continue to make an impact.
Law Summary:
Although in the Middle East, Africa, India and other emerging markets, the smartphone still has great potential to be tapped, Huawei, Lenovo and other manufacturers are also actively layout. But generally applicable in many areas of the "Matthew Effect" will still affect many smart phone manufacturers break trade barriers, to break the monopoly Apple Samsung.
The beginning of July, the major smart phone manufacturers have released earnings:
Blackberry $ 84 million first-quarter loss, less than analysts expected, the stock plunged 17%;
HTC second quarter net profit of $ 41.63 million, less than analysts expected, the stock fell to a seven-year low;
Samsung's second-quarter operating profit of $ 8.3 billion, less than analysts expected, this year's stock is down 13%;
Nokia's second quarter revenue of $ 7.4 billion, down 19.6%, while loss of $ 150 million, all from the loss of equipment and services sector;
Although Apple has not yet released earnings, but the "Fortune" under 35 Wall Street experts collegiate, gives the "Apple revenue growth will be zero" conclusion.
Earnings and stock prices has been the market about corporate performance benchmark. Less than expected earnings, the stock fell usually means that companies in some areas there is a problem. For these multi-billion dollar smart phone manufacturers, in the where exactly is the problem? From these current problems, we are trying to find some of the smart phone industry, there are some rules.
Situation one: high-end market is nearing saturation
2013, Samsung, HTC, Huawei, Nokia released the latest series of flagship phone, the Google acquisition of Motorola is also brewing a XPhone phone, in accordance with the laws in previous years, Apple will release a new generation of iPhone. But many analysts worry that these high-end product sales, and gives the expected downturn in sales.
In Galaxy S4, for example, with the Galaxy S series of previous generations of mobile phones compared Galaxy S4 analysts expected sales decline markedly accelerated. The third quarter and fourth quarter sales are expected compared to the previous two quarters, fell almost 50%. In contrast, previous generations of Galaxy series of products, such as the Galaxy S2 and Galaxy S3 stamina rather full.
Why analysts sharp decline in sales of high-end mobile phone?
The reason is simple, Arete Research Partner analyst Brett Simpson said: "Investors are not optimistic about this year's smartphone market on the grounds that developed high-end mobile phone market has become saturated, the penetration rate close to the peak; market penetration is low in areas, consumers did not spend as consumers in developed countries as much money to buy smart phones. "
Published by market research firm NPD reports that in 2013 global smart phone shipments will surpass the first feature phones, smart phone shipments main engine of growth in emerging markets. The industry believes that every month millions of consumers to buy first smartphone day is nearing an end, and the need to re-purchase customers tend to wait for two years or longer before upgrading their smart phones, This means that the smart phone market growth is slowing, which makes manufacturers must compete for market share and expand.
The rapid growth of high-end smart models already come to an end, the development of low-end models right time, and this smart phone manufacturers to bring to the direct impact is a double revenues and profits decline.
Situation two: Innovation encounter bottleneck
"Wall Street Journal" recently published an article that the U.S. consumer smartphone replacement ratio declined because consumers believe that the major manufacturers introduced flagship phone lacks sufficient innovation, so there is no need to update to the latest models.
Senior media people Wangru Chen believes that as of now, the smart phone is still mainly dependent on hardware features integrated innovation-driven. We can see the future larger, faster processor, thinner body smart phones, but that is just the amount of change does not alter the basic form of mobile phones.
Why smart phone innovation into a bottleneck?
Communications specialists Zhigang of Artesyn Technologies, said the foundation of innovation lies in the accumulation of knowledge, and the accumulation of knowledge, requires a long period. Currently, smart phone battery, processor, screen, such as the use of the basic technology, most universities in the United States 20 years ago, the birth of the laboratory, and now smart phones almost "overdraft" 20 years ago, innovative bonus.
Chen Zhigang also believes that, to some extent, the global fundamental technological innovation, has always been on par with the U.S.. However, the U.S. science and technology last ten years of development point of view, did not achieve a breakthrough, the number of Nobel Prize, gold is far better than a few decades ago. Therefore, the smart phone industry innovation encountered a bottleneck.
Senior correspondents Liu Jie (Communications old willow) of Artesyn Technologies said that the current hardware configuration of smart phones far exceeds the demand for mobile applications. That does not give consumers a mobile application differentiated experience, which lead consumers to think psychologically innovative smartphones almost stagnant.
So, how should the future development of smart phones do?
Chen Gang believes that the current smart phones have gradually replaced the PC, covering almost all the functions of the PC. Therefore, the smart phone should build a future "big integration" concept: open the door, pay, travel card ...... all the things in life can be completed through a smart phone, which may also form through another revolutionary product to complete.
Law Summary:
From the above two status quo, we can see that the smart phone as an industry started to mature, have a first-mover advantage of the enterprise, increasingly unable to derive excess dividends. Mobile phone market just as the year of the PC market, as will as the profits of the end of the turn toward average profit or even losses, until the emergence of the next epoch-making innovation.
Situation three: smartphone industry, "Matthew Effect"
According to market research firm comScore latest data show that as of the end of May, iPhone in the U.S. smart phone market share has increased to 39.2%, Samsung smartphone market share increased to 23%, in addition to the two companies, other phones share have declined .
The nation's largest mobile phone chain Dixon pass this semi-annual report shows that in the domestic market, Samsung market share close to 40% share of Apple and Samsung has reached 55%, which is almost two-party monopoly of all the mobile phone industry profits.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley believes that in the smart phone market, Samsung and Apple have been very obvious advantages, other smart phone business as a competitor, is unable to continue to compete predicament. This phenomenon is known as the "Matthew Effect", ie the strong stronger and the weak weaker. Apple's smartphone market, Samsung formed duopoly situation, many other smart phone manufacturers despite the effort, but can only occupy a small share.
In this regard, Chen Zhigang that, while Huawei, Lenovo, HTC, Nokia and other brands have launched flagship and regain some market share, but in the long run, can not change Apple, Samsung two male hegemony pattern. From a functional point of view, smart phones become more serious homogenization, these brands have been hard to beat Apple, Samsung; From the price point of view, the two companies are active in the low-end market layout, Samsung has launched a low-cost version of the Galaxy series phone while legendary cheap version of iPhone is likely to be launched this year. So, even if Samsung, Apple's earnings data does not look good, but that does not prevent them to continue to sit tight in the smart phone industry overlord throne.
Liu Jie said, Samsung, Apple has now recognized the dangers of ignoring innovation, the two companies are in the research and development efforts, which for other mobile phone manufacturers, it is a bad signal, smart phone industry, "Matthew Effect" will continue to make an impact.
Law Summary:
Although in the Middle East, Africa, India and other emerging markets, the smartphone still has great potential to be tapped, Huawei, Lenovo and other manufacturers are also actively layout. But generally applicable in many areas of the "Matthew Effect" will still affect many smart phone manufacturers break trade barriers, to break the monopoly Apple Samsung.
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